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November 2018 Market Update for North County San Diego

Posted by Tyson Lund on Tuesday, November 20th, 2018 at 2:10pm.

Video Transcription of November 2018 Market Update

- Hello, hello.

- Hello, hello.

- Tyson Lund and Garrett Lund, just giving you some insight. We're always curious, wherever I go, I hear people talking about real estate and different opinions. And especially as we start to enter into a market that's starting to not act as it did, which was basically year over year, just appreciate, and it was a very easy conversation.

- Are prices higher this year? Yes, and this is the first kind of year where it's a little uncertain. And within our industry, there's a lot of questions.

- As we meet with agents and big groups, and we'll sit down, we're like, well what are you feeling in your marketplace? What are you seeing in Rancho Santa Fe, La Jolla, downtown San Diego?

- So we'll give you a little bit of insight to what the numbers are saying. This is general North County, put out by a home dex report. It's independent. It's basically a combining of a lot of different sales. But it'll give you some insight and if you wanna keep up with the real estate market, we'll give you some insight on what we're seeing.

- Yeah. Well, tell us, we were just snowballing on some of this information, what this is showing us, what this is telling us, maybe is there some advice we can give clients based on this information.

- This is what we're doing behind the scenes daily. These numbers are changing just like the stock market. So Tyson was laying these out, I was talking about some questions. So tell us the gist of what is going on, what the ball points are.

- So the difference that we're seeing in this marketplace, which is interesting to actually see it in the numbers and it's spread out, is that typically what happens in a winter market is that sales slow down as much as 30%, but in combination the last few years, the number of homes on the market, or we can call this the inventory rate based on what the sales are happening, that goes down as well.

- So people start removing their houses from the market, not as many things get listed, and that tends to shrink up the inventory. We actually, this is the first time in many years that we're actually seeing a slightly higher inventory. And it's actually because there's less sales, too.

- So there's not this overwhelming amount of supply, necessarily, but it's different. Instead of 1.8 months of supply, or one and a half months of supply, we're now up to three months, three and a half months, depending on the marketplace. And in certain price points, which are let's say the luxury price point above 1.2, 1.3, the average market time is also going up.

- So you'll get higher supply of maybe four or five months of supply, plus, and then you have a higher market time. So it's definitely showing in the general numbers, not just North County, South County as well, that the market's slower. The affordability index is, the affordability's down because prices are higher. And part of that affordability index is monthly payment, so interest rates are higher than they were last year around the same time, by about roughly about a point.

- So that in the million dollar average price point between eight to 900,000, it makes a difference. So what does this mean? What does this mean if you own a property and you're considering selling? Well, you've got to change your expectations. You're going to be on the market longer. You may sell within the first couple weeks, but you actually, it may take four or five months.

- We're returning to probably what most of us realtors have been doing it a while in normal market. We're coming off a hyper seller's market for a long enough time to where it almost seems normal to sell your house in the first weekend. So this isn't bad news. There's a lot of good with this change.

- Prices are up.

- I've got a client right now, we just listed their home. I suggested they put it on the market. They've got a very sellable property, and they're going to be jumping up. It's a great move-up opportunity, because these higher homes that are nine and a million that were blowing off the shelf, are sitting a little bit, and there's a lot more wiggle room on price.

- So great opportunity for those that have been in their house a while, have made some equity, they can put that money down, so their payment isn't astronomically, but they can get so much more house. We're looking at a property where for another 200 jump, we're gonna double in size, double lot size, garage size, and relatively in the same area. So that's exciting.

- We'll sell his house in the first week. It all depends kind of on which market we're talking about. So there's a lot of differentials. Typically in the wintertime, too, you'll receive a little bit less than the offering price. The prices today that are being negotiated in the October/November, it's a little less than what it was in the previous years.

- So there's a greater discount being negotiated. What does that mean for buyers? For those houses that are on the market and need to sell, you're getting a better discount, a greater discount than you typically get any time of the year. So that's what's the advantage of certain move-up buyers. You're going out and getting a fantastic discount. At that price point, that's 50, $60,000 discount, which is tremendous.

- So it's exciting. Change is a good thing. Change brings opportunity. And again, we have to give generalities because a condo in La Costa or a condo in San Marcos is not gonna be the same market, as maybe let's say a detached in Shadowridge, or a coastal ocean front property, and we sell them all. So each little market segment.

- So we want to encourage you to reach out to us independently and say, we have an appointment on Friday, they want to move to new construction. What does it look like? How am I going to sell, maximize my price, and plan for something that's going to be ready maybe June of 2019?

- So what's my expectations? And we're very, very good at that. And we give you realistic expectations on the market.

- We want you to take this information, and we'll use it to the best strategy in your particular case.

- Yep, yep, so longterm real estate remains a fabulous investment. We are longterm real estate people. Get excited about real estate if you're going to be in the area for the next over two years, it's a silly, silly thing to rent. You go out and look at real estate to buy if you're renting currently. We'll run numbers for you. You can use them as you wish, but you will see that buying and investing long term in this area for the long term, will be a wonderful thing for you in your future self.

- Great, thanks for watching.

Tyson Lund
Broker Associate | 01385039

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