A rolling ninety day window: June 1 through August 31, 2026. Inventory current as of September 16, 2026.
Rancho Carrillo is a village community in southeast Carlsbad built mostly in the late 1990s and early 2000s, with a small enough turnover that only a rolling window says anything reliable.
How this is measured, before the numbers
These figures cover the three complete months from June 1 through August 31, 2026 rather than August on its own, and they are compared with the identical three months a year earlier. A single month in a market this size swings on a handful of closings, which makes it a poor guide to where prices actually are. The median is taken from the whole pool of 15 sales in the window, not averaged from three monthly medians. Of those 15 sales, 2 closed in August 2026.
June 1 through August 31, 2026 in numbers
All figures from the September 16, 2026 pull. Sales and inventory come from the same pull.
| Measure | June 1 through August 31, 2026 | June 1 through August 31, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Homes sold | 15 | 9 |
| Median price | $1,625,000 | $1,325,000 |
| Median price per square foot | $639 | $607 |
| Median days on market | 8 | 11 |
| Sale to list price | 100.1% | 98.9% |
| Percent of original asking price | 100.0% | 98.9% |
| Closed at or above asking | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Took a price reduction | 20.0% | 11.1% |
The median across the window was $1,625,000 and price per square foot $639. The same three months a year earlier saw only 9 sales, which is too small a base to quote a year over year percentage against. Both figures are printed above so the comparison is visible, but read the direction rather than the size of it.
Homes took a median 8 days on market across the window, against 11 days in the same three months a year earlier. Sellers collected a median 100.1 percent of their final asking price and 100.0 percent of their original.
Over the full twelve months through August 2026, the median across 55 sales was $1,425,000, up 2.5 percent against the twelve months before it. The ninety day window shows where the market has been lately; the twelve month figure shows the longer trend.
Inventory as of September 16, 2026
There were 4 homes for sale and 6 in escrow. Against a closing pace of 4.6 sales a month over the previous twelve months, that is 0.9 months of supply. At that level a well priced home does not stay on the market long. Inventory is a point in time rather than a window, so this snapshot is dated and belongs to this post only.
A note on sample size. 15 sales across ninety days is a small pool. The figures above are the record of what closed, not a reading of where values are heading, and this market is excluded from any comparison against its neighbors. The twelve month figure is the one to lean on here.
The national rate backdrop
Nationally, the Freddie Mac thirty year fixed average barely moved through August, reading 6.69 percent on the sixth, 6.67 on the thirteenth, 6.65 on the twentieth and 6.66 on the twenty seventh. That is a four basis point range across the whole month. It is national context and not a reading of this market, and nothing above should be attributed to it.
Where to look next
Neighborhood pages for this market: Rancho Carrillo, Carlsbad real estate, Bressi Ranch, La Costa Valley.
Same month, other markets: Ocean Hills Country Club.
How these figures are put together
Every figure above is calculated from closed residential sales reported to the multiple listing service in Rancho Carrillo, from the pull dated September 16, 2026. The window is the three complete calendar months from June 1 through August 31, 2026, compared with June 1 through August 31, 2025. Medians are pooled from the individual sales in the window rather than averaged from monthly figures, because an average of medians is not a median and one unusual sale moves an average. Where the same home closed twice on two listings, it is counted once. Sale to list price is against the final asking price; percent of original asking price is shown separately. Active listings, pending sales and months of supply are a snapshot from the same pull and are dated above.
These are recently closed sales in the area and are not represented as transactions of The Lund Team. This is not an appraisal, a valuation, or financial advice.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of September 16, 2026 and/or other sources. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker of MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
Tyson Lund · Broker · DRE #01385039
The Lund Team, Inc. · DRE #01394870
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